Sunday, January 30, 2011

Quick Thoughts Before Pitchers And Chooch Report

For everyone who loves someone, February 14th is a stressful day.  For everyone who loves baseball, February 14th is a magical day.  Pitchers and catcher report to spring training on Valentine's Day this year and for Phillies fans it is a far better gift than chocolate or flowers.  It is the dawn of a new day and this day has all the promise of being the sunniest yet.

Entering spring training with possibly the best pitching rotation in history, the Phillies are poised for another deep post-season run with "championship or bust" as their motto.  Halladay, Lee, Oswalt, and Hamels certainly bodes well for completing the objective of bringing a World Series Trophy back to CBP for the second time since 2008.  That foursome, along with one helluva good game caller in Ruiz, has the National League trembling.

We musn't let the starting pitching put blinders on our eyes though.  There is quite a serious problem facing the 2011 Phils.  Coming off of this groups worst offensive seasons in the last five years (772 runs scored), and obvious power slumps from the heavy hitters like Howard(31 HR), Utley((16 HR) injured), and Werth(27 HR), any semblance of scoring consistency is yet to be determined.  Guys like Victorino and Ruiz stepped up to help the Phillies reach the NLCS, but the season-defining moment came when Howard struck out looking with his bat on his shoulder.  There is no definite fix in sight.  Whether it was the absence of leaders like Rollins and Utley throwing off the flow, or contract negotiations for Howard and Werth, the offense just didn't click.

There were a few options the Phillies let slip through their fingers.  Seemingly, with the $2.45 million that the organization gave to Kyle Kendrick, the Phillies are likely to trade Blanton before opening day in order to recoup some money that they are currently paying two number 5 starters.  That money could have gone into a 1 or 2 year deal for a veteran hitter that hits for average like Matt Diaz or Magglio Ordonez; both of whom could have filled in at right field nicely.  Instead, we have a platoon outfield of Ben Fransisco and Domonic Brown, a huge liability.

It looks like at this point that Blanton will still be traded, but any moves to fill the right field gap are unlikely.  The starting pitchers are no strangers to lack of run support, Hamels especially.  Hopefully, the offense thought long and hard this offseason about how to fix the slumps that they are prone to hit for weeks at a time (see: playoffs).  HOWEVER, the season has not started yet, and we are still looking at the most incredible foursome of pitchers ever assembled.  So, until the first offensive slump of the season, enjoy falling in love all over again this Valentine's Day.


Stay Tuned: I'll explain why Carlos Ruiz should be on the Phillies Wall of Fame

Friday, January 21, 2011

Mediocre Monsters


Brendan Hazlett
LosingWithStyle NBA Contributor


Is there a better way to describe the Sixers than mediocre monsters? Anyone who saw their last two games has to sit back and laugh.  The mistakes they make down the stretch, their inability to consistently rely on a go-to guy, and their porous defense are reason enough to give up on them.  Add that up with the fact that the franchise hasn’t had a winning season since 2004-5 when they lost to Detroit in the first round.  Attendance at Wells Fargo is the lowest in the league.  Really? Philadelphia?  This isn’t Memphis, Vancouver, or Seattle.  This is a storied franchise that has produced all-time greats such as Barkley, Erving, Malone, Iverson (arguably), and others.

And if you trend it over the long run, it becomes even more depressing.  The 76ers haven’t won a championship trophy since 1983. 37 years ago.  And we’ve only had a staggering single win in a Finals series since then.  It’s difficult to envision this struggling franchise quickly coming together to produce a high-caliber winning team capable of contending.

So what’s the solution?

As hard as it is to watch these games, there are positives.  Against a formidable Magic defense playing over the watchful eye of their home crowd, the Sixers’ young guns stuck it to Orlando.  Attacking the rim with an unflinching ferocity, they found a way to stay competitive in a hostile environment.  It was fun to watch and undoubtedly would have been an entertaining nationally televised contest (is anyone else sick of watching the Brandon Roy-less Trailblazers playing every other game?).  But I digress.  You can’t pinpoint every single negative and hope to rebuild simply from that.  Picture the Celtics early in the decade.  Paul Pierce was their franchise rock but upper management couldn’t find a way to give him a supporting cast.  They slumped at the bottom of the Conference until they drafted Rondo, then miraculously worked the market to snag Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett.  Instant contenders for years to come.

What management has to do in this case is find a reliable go-to option.  It is not Iguodala.  It is not Brand.  And no, Lou Williams is not going to suddenly explode for a 20+ PPG season. It’s not going to happen, stop thinking about it.  Every great team operates around an impact scorer, and a big man who can control the paint defensively.  Shuffle in some role players, and you’ve got yourself a team.  Nobody on the Sixers scores over 15 PPG; they’re the only team in the league that does that.  Iguodala game is a massive underachievement this season. He’s an incredible player, but not your franchise leader.  He’s a solid alternate option.  Scouts know him already; he can’t shoot and his dribbling skills are less than savory.  His defensive skill set is stellar, no doubt, but that’s not going to take your team over the top.  In essence, he’s a poor man’s Josh Smith.  While I was overjoyed at our acquiring of Brand a few years ago, his worth is far beneath expectations.  The perennial 20/10 big man is no more; knee surgeries tend to do that.  And to reemphasize, stop waiting on Lou Williams. That experiment is over.  At best, this guy is a sixth-man of the year, and he isn’t even close to that level now.

There are players to keep.  From watching the way he plays with a knack to get to the rim and his relatively high rebounding rate, Turner is going to be rock solid.  Thad Young should continue to come off the bench because of his versatility and offensive arsenal.  But scouts know him too well for him to play 30+ minutes a night.  Jrue Holiday is a future All-Star, no doubt about it.  Don’t sleep on that kid.  I see Speights as a marginal contributor because he prefers to play outside so much.  What happened to dominant, physical big men who bang on the inside?  I think I preferred Reggie Evans more.  Hawes?  No, absolutely not.  You don’t go over the top with a weak center who gets crushed down low.  Talk about a defensive liability.

This team needs restructuring, but not a massive overhaul.  Keep the young core together, and get a team to bite on Brand or Iguodala, perhaps even if it’s a low sell.  The Iguodala experiment is over; he’s a second fiddle at best.  Go out and get a scorer, someone to attract fans to Wells Fargo.  Get that attendance up, build a winning culture, and bring back relevance to the basketball world in Philly.  If we stay optimistic and follow the mold of the Celtics, it could be just around the corner.

Monday, January 17, 2011

Wishin' And Hopin' And Thinkin' And Prayin'

Is it February 2nd?  It sure feels like Groundhog Day in Philadelphia and Andy Reid is Phil Connors.  It's another year of early vacations for the Eagles' players and there is a strange air of deja vu.  This franchise has been one of the more successful teams over the last decade, but has still not won a Superbowl.  Trip after trip to the playoffs and absolutely nothing to show for it.  So one must ask: what does this team need to get over the hump?  Well, I think there are quite a few things.  Here is my wish list for the off-season, ignoring salary cap issues and the collective bargaining elephant in the room.

  • D-Jax for V-Jax.  There are two pro-bowl caliber receivers named Jackson that are unhappy with their roles and salaries on their current teams.  Why not offer the San Diego Chargers Desean Jackson for their big WR Vincent Jackson?  This move would take a little work from both sides as Desean is currently under contract, albeit a small one, and Vincent Jackson will be a free agent this off-season.  San Diego would most likely have to resign Vincent Jackson in order to trade him for Desean.  I doubt San Diego would let him walk, then trade a high draft pick or two just to sign Action Jackson for a big contract.  If anything it would be a position shakeup that both teams need.  These two had nearly identical numbers in 2009, but Vincent is a big target that could be a presence going across the middle, something that the Eagles lack.  Between he and Maclin, Vick would have all the deep threat he could want.  Besides, D-Jax and his pretty boy Cali swag would be right at home in sunny San Diego.
  • Since we are on the topic of Vick...  It's essential that Vick is given either an extension or the franchise tag.  To give him that franchise tag would mean the Eagles have one more year to evaluate him while paying a sum that he would be comfortable with: likely $17+ million.  An extension probably wouldn't be much longer that a few years.  Vick ignited a spark that the stale Eagles have not see in years.  His athleticism and desire to return to prominence made watching on Sunday tolerable again for many people.  Although he is a controversial figure, there is no denying the next level to which he elevates this offense.
  • More than anything this off-season Lurie, Banner, Roseman, and Reid need to work on getting someone nasty on defense.  I mean nasty in two senses: really good and really mean.  Preferably, this person should be a defensive tackle or a linebacker in order to stop the sieve that is a run defense.  When was the last time there was a defensive Eagle that was just plain mean?  Yeah, Dawkins was crazy, but it was a bit comical the way he approached a tackle.  No, what I'm talking about is a dirty player kind of mean.  A Haynesworth kind of mean.  I know, I know.  "Haynesworth is a fat cry-baby making $100 million dollars."  However, he would fit perfectly (in more than one way) on this defense.  He is the big boy brick wall that is glaringly absent in between Trent Cole and Juqua Parker.  Plus, much of the drama he created in Washington was because they wanted him to play in a 3-4 defense where he wouldn't have had any real responsibility or opportunity.  In an attacking 4-3 defense where anyone's number could be called on a blitz, Haynesworth would have the chance to rush the QB rather than just keeping two blockers occupied.  It's rumored that he wants to stay in Washington, but don't you think he'd rather play Shanahan's Redskins twice a year?
  • Take advantage of the draft!  Use picks for something valuable for once.  There are two options in this draft for the Eagles to make a splash, and it makes sense for everyone involved.  I've already said that Vick needs to be re-signed and Kolb has mentioned he wants out if he doesn't get to start.  Two teams jump out at me as teams that Kolb could start for: Arizona and Carolina.  OPTION #1: Offer Kolb and a first round swap to Arizona.  The Cardinals will be picking 5th, and they desperately need an NFL ready QB which I just don't see at that pick.  Philly would move up to 5th and pick defensive back Patrick Peterson from LSU as an immediate play-maker opposite Asante Samuel and infinitely better than any option Reid is putting out there now.  OPTION #2: The Panthers are in the same boat as the Cardinals in QB terms.  Andrew Luck, the projected #1 pick in the draft, certainly delivered a gut punch by deciding to stay at Stanford.  Carolina has that pick this year, but who knows how next season will pan out.  What sense does it make to stay at #1 when the franchise QB they need is no longer there.  Kolb, first round swap, and a 4th or 5th rounder for Carolina's first overall pick.  This puts the Eagles in a prime position to address their need at DT with Nick Fairley who would be a nice substitute should Haynesworth not be available.  He possesses the same kind of talent and mean streak that the Eagles lack.
Most importantly, Andy Reid must recognize that he is this teams largest obstacle (no pun intended, but funny nonetheless).  His drafting method and refusal to adjust his coaching style to what each game dictates are locking this team in football purgatory.  He has built a decent team, but refuses to fully take advantage of his weapons.  At this point, it's unclear what kind of protection Jeff Lurie is extending to Reid, but unless Big Red learns to manage the clock better or run when the defense will let him run, I don't see him seeing too many more summers as an Eagle.  How many more variables must change before we realize that the constant is the problem?  It's silly for me to get my hopes up with this wish list except in a world where money is no object.  I leave you with my final plea to the Eagles brass:

Please get us to February 3rd.

Saturday, January 15, 2011

Back To The Future

I like Doug Collins.  I think he's a good coach and he's great for the young guys on the team.  And I think he can be one of the reasons that this team goes from a sub .500 team to a 6th, 5th, or 4th seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs within 3 years.  Before he does that, though, he's going to have to realize something... pick a lineup and stick with it.  Lose with it.  Learn with it.

I understand that because of injuries he's had to shuffle a little bit, but he's gotta understand his personnel.  Iguodala has missed a good amount of games due to an achilles injury, and Spencer Hawes is fighting lower back issues.  He's put different lineups on the floor all year though, choosing between Turner and Meeks and Williams and Young and Hawes and Speights.  He's done this all while rumors and hopes that Iggy and maybe Brand would be traded to create some cap room.  Maybe they make a move down the road shuffles the roster, but until then a little stability would nice.

Here is my proposed lineup: Holliday, Turner, Brand, Speights, and Young.  And here is why.  Holliday and Turner are the future of this team whether people believe it or not.  Turner has struggled this year, but he can only get better.  Brand stays in the lineup because he has been so good for so long in his career.  He can teach the kids things, and at the same time play at an all-star level like he has done this year.  Speights has to be in the lineup.  He is young and strong, has a beautiful mid-range jumper and hustles like crazy.  I understand that he may not be the smartest basketball player, but aren't we used to that at the center position?  Lastly, I struggled between Young and Iguodala but I picked Young because of his energy and great field goal percentage.  He drains shots at a 54% rate.  Iguodala will get his minutes anyway and should understand that.  But I want these 5 guys on the court to start every game.

That lineup sure puts depth on the bench doesn't it?  I believe it gives the Sixers a better chance to win games and develops the guys who will be on the team for the next few years.  Meeks is lights out from beyond, but hasn't made a lay-up this season, so why have him start?  Iguodala will come off the bench to spell any one of the guard or forward positions and immediately impact the game, and he'll still get thirty minutes a game, so I wouldn't worry about his ego.  I've openly stated that I wouldn't mind if the team move Lou Will, but until then, he is a natural scorer.  He has a propensity to drill shots for a stretch, but him playing point is not smart, especially when Holliday is also on the floor.  It is counter-productive to have a career bench player take high pressure moments away from a future all-star point guard.  Regardless, he can score in bunches and can cover for Turner or Holliday.

I'd rather watch a team grow together and win or lose than a team patch-worked to scrape by an average opponent.  It's a new era of Sixers basketball and it's a relatively new team.  Some will probably disagree with my proposed line-up and that is ok.  But I doubt anyone will disagree that Doug needs to sit down and make a decision on who will start.  However that line-up turns out, it needs to start with Turner and Holliday, the future of this exciting young team.

PS.  Sixers tickets aren't that bad on StubHub.  Let's get out there and support this team.


Prettiest court in the NBA

Monday, January 10, 2011

Going Gently Into That Good Night....

David Akers missed field goals, Lou Williams missed free throws, and Delaware's defense missed the second half.  What could have been a weekend of elation for the fans of the Eagles, Sixers, and Blue Hens floated away as easily as a helium balloon let go by a small child (as inevitable too).  As we sort through the ashes, there are a few things to discuss about each game.

People will use Akers at the punchline of many of their jokes over the coming days, much the same as I did ("Guess we can't call him David Makers..").  Though he is quite an easy scapegoat, he deserves little blame for the loss.  Some may argue that the 6 points he failed to convert were the difference in the game, but they would be blatantly ignoring the certain touchdown that James Jones dropped in the closing minutes of the half that would have made those 6 points moot.  True: Akers failed to do the one thing he is paid to do each week.  Also true: Everyone else did too.

You can't pin a defensive/offensive/coaching implosion on the kicker, who may or may not have some family issues.  The coaching staff fudged up yet again.  12 carries for McCoy?  About 12 short.  Packers running it up the middle all game with a rookie running back and you send your linebackers on an edge blitz?  Why not make the safeties prevent as well.  Reid continues to be out-coached every year, and it's getting old.  The offense struggled again because they don't take advantage of their weapons or adjust, and no, Vick does not need to run more.  Desean Jackson continues to take it easy in big games just because he doesn't get the ball on every out route.  He took a loooong time getting healthy from whatever injury he had, but looked fresh as can be on his last catch.  And the defense... well we knew what we had on defense coming in to the game.  So please, don't blame the game on Akers or a low throw by Vick.  The blame should be spread evenly, with a slightly larger portion going to the big man in charge.

KC Keeler gets to join Reid in his larger-than-average dog house.  Delaware entered their 3rd championship in eight years as the clear favorite.  Devlin and company got off to a hot start, leading 19-0 shortly after half-time.  Then they took it easy.  The Hens secondary were content to let Mitchell complete passes in front of them, playing basically a prevent defense for the rest of the game.  There was no sense of urgency on offense either as they did not score for the rest of the game.  This game was another example of a missed kick that had no bearing on the final score.  Yes, Delaware lost by one point after not converting and extra point kick, but a defensive collapse and ineffective offense again relieve the kicker of all blame.

Lou Williams will get the last of my chiding for the moment.  I haven't kept my dislike for Lou Williams hidden, and against Detroit he did nothing to change my mind.  In the waning seconds of the game, he missed two free throws that would have iced the game (only 1 was needed since they were up three points with 6 seconds left).  Then, when Austin Daye tied the game with a 3 pointer, Lou had a chance to redeem himself and missed a game winning shot.  He is taking minutes from players that need to develop and trying to be a closer that he has not the ability to be.  The Sixers have given him 5 years to prove something, and all he's done is proven that he is lightening off the bench sometimes.  It's time to end the experiment and package him in a deal with one of the larger contracts (Iggy or Brand).  The Sixers must recognize what they don't have and spend the next few years finding it.

So, cheers to the Flyers for not disappointing me this weekend.  More on their season coming soon.

Sunday, January 9, 2011

Acquisitions Gone Awry – Doug Collins and Others

Brendan Hazlett
LosingWithStyle NBA Contributor

Since 2000, the 76ers franchise has done everything it can to restore the glory of that year. As a loyal fan, who can forget? Bursting out of the gate that year 10-0, the championship-hungry Sixers, propelled by the magnificent play of a young Allen Iverson, resurrected life back into professional basketball in Philly. The end of the year yielded a Coach of the Year in Larry Brown, the best defensive player in Dikembe Mutombo, the MVP for AI (the only AI as far as I’m concerned), and best 6th man of the year in Aaron McKie (what a stroke he had).  Though they lost to the indomitable Lakers in the Finals later that year, any Sixers fan remembers that exciting year. The years since then have witnessed a slow and steady decline with brief flashes of life, but ultimately minor acquisitions at best that leave the franchise nowhere.

Of course, high expectations remained for the team after making the NBA Finals. But they returned the next season greatly diminished and consequently underperformed, losing in the first round of the playoffs to a Paul Pierce – led Celtics. They have not been the same since. Larry Brown abruptly resigned his position, and the search for a stable, defensive-minded, motivational coach persisted. The front office went through people who’s resumes aren’t exactly stellar; Randy Ayers, Chris Ford, and Jim O’Brien. The slides continued, especially with the seemingly inevitable departure of Iverson. The hiring of Maurice Cheeks briefly brought life back into Philly, but it soon became obvious that the roster was not capable of contending amongst the Eastern elites. Draft picks and trades, as always, remained unimpressive.

Then a nightmare stormed into Philly by the name of Eddie Jordan. Ed Stefanski, then-Sixers GM, had a long interview with Jordan and spontaneously hired him on the spot. Touting his Princeton offense philosophy, Jordan decided to completely neglect defense. His system was an absolute disaster for the roster, since the young and upcoming team was designed to run the floor and create havoc for slow-moving, meticulous teams. His tenure was short-lived and the franchise found itself in the basement of the Eastern Conference once again.

The hiring of Doug Collins sustains the tradition of Philadelphia basketball. His knowledge of the game is deep and impressive, and if you’ve ever heard his broadcasts, you can easily understand his affection and love for basketball. However, he’s no Phil Jackson, no Pat Riley, no Red Auerbach. The Sixers are seemingly the same as they always are; a team that’s athletically gifted and projected to improve in the future. But it never happens. Mediocre acquisitions from players to coaches to front office positions continually produce the same outcome: either early first-round playoff exits or seasons where you just give up and pray for those bastard lottery balls. Instead of the ultimate goal of winning a championship, the goal has remained the same: hover around .500 and hope some miracle happens. What “great” players have come to Philly in the wake of Iverson? Chris Webber? Elton Brand? Andre Iguodala? A slow, broken, depreciated Iverson? It’s almost pathetic.

While the hiring of Doug Collins is a small victory for the franchise since he can impart his deep comprehension of the game to the young roster, the 76ers are still losing the war. There hasn’t been an emphasis on a winning culture since 2000-2001. It’s no secret that Chairman Ed Snider prizes his Flyers and clearly focuses less attention on basketball. The Eagles and Phillies loom in front of it all, clouding any minor success the Sixers can muster. The 76ers are about as important in Philadelphia as Adam Morrison was to the Lakers’ title run last year.

So what’s going to solve the problem? Years of losing that will lead us to the lottery and the hope of a #1 pick? Evan Turner surely doesn’t appear to assume a role of franchise leader anytime soon. Jrue Holiday is ballin’, but does it even matter? Elton Brand’s monstrous contract stymies the hope of luring any big-name players. Doug Collins, an average coach by any means, may be able to float the team into the 8th spot of the playoffs at best. And we all know the end result of that: a quick and almost painless demolition by the Celtics. The GMs have consistently failed to deliver big time, league-changing acquisitions that can reverse the fortunes of the team. It seems that the Sixers will be mired in this sub-.500 culture for years to come. It’s a sad sight to see for any fan that experienced the glory and wonder of the 2000-2001 team.

Thursday, January 6, 2011

Leighton's Legacy

Jacob Owens
LosingWithStyle NHL/MLS Contributor


This past Monday, the Flyers waived goaltender Michael Leighton, essentially
placing his talents up for grabs. Luckily for the team he remained unclaimed and will
return to the Adirondack Phantoms farm team due to a weak market for goalies. The
move should help strengthen his timing in net coming back from an October back
surgery, but his return to the Flyers appears unlikely.
For those that have lost track in this exciting season of highs, though, we should
pause to remember what Leighton meant to the team just 8 months ago.
The Flyers needed a 2-1 OT shootout win over the rival New York Rangers on the
last game of 2009-10 season to sneak into the playoffs.
Only 5 months before that, the Flyers claimed Leighton off waivers themselves from
the Carolina Hurricanes. In his 8th NHL season last year, Leighton had been a budget
choice move, largely to protect the team in case of injury to Brian Boucher and the failed
Ray Emery experiment.
He had only started 29 games in 3 seasons with the Hurricanes and held a decent 2.83
GAA in those starts.
When Boucher went down in Game 5 of the Conference Semifinals versus the
Boston Bruins with MCL sprains in both knees, however, it pushed Leighton into his first
NHL playoff game ever. It was also the first time that he had been in net in 24 games,
stretching back nearly 2 months.
He held his own in Game 5, though, stopping all 14 shots in 35+ minutes and thus
became half of the first goaltender platoon to share a playoff shutout since 1955.
He went on to back the dominant Flyers defensive line in the miraculous Game 7
comeback win, in which they won 4-3 despite being down 3-0 in a incredibly hostile
TD Garden in Boston. In doing so, they became only the third team in NHL history to
comeback from down 3 games in a playoff series.
They’re improbable win over the Bruins meant they also held home ice advantage
over the streaking Montreal Canadians, who took down Cup favorites Washington
and Pittsburgh in the first two rounds in 7 games a piece. Leighton would shutout the
Canadians 3 times in the Conference series, twice in Montreal. He is the only Flyers
goaltender to have done that and was the star of the series that delivered the Flyboys to
their first Cup try since 1997.
While the Orange-and-Black came up just short in a Game 6 OT loss to the Stanley
Cup Champion Chicago Blackhawks, the fans at the Wachovia Center cheered on their
Flyers liked they had won (After a long awkward pause to determine if Patrick Kane
had indeed scored and the puck hadn’t disappeared into thin air). Leighton produced the
Flyers only two Stanley Cup wins last year (both at home), but was also responsible for
their 4 losses giving up 14 goals.
Leighton held onto a 2.75 GAA in the Stanley Cup series and a 2.46 average in his
first playoffs. He managed a respectable .916% save percentage in 14 games, stopping
340 of 371 shots, and producing an 8-4 record with 3 shutouts.
At times he looked soft and other times slow (a.k.a. 5-1 Game 3 Eastern Conference
finals home loss and Stanley Cup Game 1 and 5 road losses), but more often then not, he
would cut the crease or flash the glove in ways you couldn’t believe he was capable of. In
the end, no one can deny how big of a part Leighton played in the dramatic “Cinderella”
run of the 2009-10 Flyers.
It was something this Flyers fan will never be able to forget, perhaps even better
than watching my beloved Phillies win the 2008 World Series. The ups-and-downs
and “gasping-for-breath” goals and saves of the NHL playoffs have never been as
invigorating as last year.
That was 7 months ago now, though, and Leighton is probably at home or on an AHL
bus waiting to see if he’ll get to wear the Orange-and-Black again this season.
Many may be angry with Leighton for not disclosing his injury earlier than he did, but
for now though, it’s probably best to say “Thanks” at least one more time.
With Boucher and Sergei Bobrovsky playing well enough for the Flyers to be at the
top of the Eastern Conference, limitations for roster moves, and the problem of re-entry
waivers, Leighton won’t likely play with the varsity squad again this year.
But with Boucher becoming an unrestricted free agent next year and Leighton still on
tap for another year on his contract, we may once again get to see “Leights Out” Leighton
one more time.

Wednesday, January 5, 2011

Friday Night Lights In Frisco

The poor, poor residents of Chattanooga, Tennessee.  For the first time in fourteen years, they will not be hosting the Football Championship Subdivision championship game, having been beaten out for it by the thriving metropolis of Frisco, Texas.  This matters not one bit to the current students and alum of the University of Delaware, though.  Hoards of Blue Hen fans will be making the 1,430 mile trip to see UD in yet another FCS Championship game, their third in eight years.  This is slightly more than the 695 miles to Tennessee, but when your alma mater has become a FCS powerhouse, I suppose it's worth the extra quality time with some buddies.  UD will face the Eastern Washington Eagles at Pizza Hut Park under the lights Friday night, a tradition held dear in Texas.  And no, you did not read that wrong.  It is Pizza Hut Park...  The winner gets a 42 lb P'Zone.

Pat Devlin leads the 12-2 Hens against perhaps the most redneck named quarterback in football, Bo Levi Mitchell, and the 12-2 Eagles.  Of the two, Devlin certainly has a higher profile but both QB's are running very successful offenses.  The Eagles are 3rd in the FCS with 452 points on 52 touchdowns compared to the Hens at 10th overall with 399 points on 47 touchdowns.  Andrew Pierce, the freshman phenom at UD, chalked up one of the more impressive freshman seasons for a running back.  On 301 carriers, he racked up 1,513 yards.  His counterpart for EW, Taiwan Jones rushed for the division's second best total of 1742 yards on 221 carries.  Think about that season average for Jones... 7.9 yards a carry over an entire season is insane.  HOWEVER, Jones is listed as doubtful after breaking his foot in their quarterfinal game against North Dakota State.  He missed the semifinal game against Villanova and will likely miss the championship game too.  His backup, Mario Brown, filled in nicely but I don't see him being a major factor in this game which will place the weight of Eagles' offense on Mitchell's arm.

Delaware's secondary MUST perform well on Friday.  They have been excellent all season behind Anthonies Walters and Bratton, who are in the top 5 in the Colonial Athletic Association in passes defended.  Walters led the CAA in interceptions and finished 8th in the country in INT's per game (taking into consideration the three playoff games thus far).  With the 15th ranked rush defense in front of them, Walters, Bratton, and Tyron Grant will be chomping at the bit in the defensive backfield.  The unproven Eastern Washington run game will force Delaware's secondary being targeted all night in a pass heavy offense.  Turnovers in the secondary will be key for Delaware as Bo Levi has thrown 14 interceptions on the year.

Devlin does not suffer the same inaccuracy affliction as Mitchell.  There is talk of Devlin maybe being a second round pick in the NFL draft this year, and boy is that talk founded.  He has, and will continue to be compared to Joe Flacco because of the UD connection, but they are actually quite different quarterbacks.  Throwing only two interceptions, Devlin completed passes at a rate of 68%.  He is extremely accurate and throws end zone fades and back shoulder sideline routes with the best of them.  He stands tall in the pocket, but is about 3 inches shorter than was Flacco.  With the CAA Freshman of the Year in Pierce to hand it off to, Devlin will be able to take his time on pass plays and break down the Eagles' secondary with professional accuracy.

This is the third championship game since Kurt Charles Keeler took over for Tubby Raymond, the legendary head coach of 36 years, in 2002.  Keeler has been a recruiting monster, taking Division 1 players and prospects and transferring them to Delaware.  Flacco was at Pittsburgh, Devlin was Penn State.  He's also pulled guys like Rob Schoenhoft from Ohio State, and this propensity to get transfers from the Big 10* led to rumors that Michigan's quarterback Tate Forcier would transfer as well.  Keeler runs a spread offense where QB's don't spend much time under center, and this helps quarterbacks at the lower FCS level feel more comfortable and become successful.  KC is a good coach and should be able to get this team ready to handle the pressure of a championship game, and with the distance to the venue for both teams, there will not be much of a home-field advantage for either team.  Delaware has a superior defense and quarterback and, with the loss of Taiwan Jones hurting Eastern Washington, should win this game handily.

Adam's Pick:  UD 42-24


*If Keeler wins the championship on friday, there is not much left for him to accomplish at this level of collegiate football.  His name has been attached to the Penn State job, whenever it is that Joe Pa retires or dies or his stuffing falls out and we realize a taxidermist has mummified him.  Randy Edsall left UConn to coach Maryland and Keeler has been a name floating around that job as well.  I think there is a MUCH better fit than both of those schools though, and it wouldn't be that much of a change (in uniform at least).  Rich Rodriguez was fired from Michigan today, and Keeler would be perfect for that team.  He obviously has some clout in the Big 10, and his spread offense combined with Denard Robinson's all around talent would dominate that division.  With Keeler's loyalty to Delaware, and Michigan's history of playing FCS teams (see: loss to App State), we could see a matching helmet/cross divisional game between the two.  It would make money for Delaware, and would be a hell of a story for Keeler.

Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Eagles - Packers Preview Extravaganza!

If the last game of the season was any representation of the 15 games before it, most people's preseason analysis of the Eagles would have been spot on.  The Cowboys go on to win the division as Kolb is sacked and intercepted; leaving the Eagles with an 8-8 record tops, and ultimately watching the playoffs from their couches.  But, this season was much different, wasn't it?  Kolb was in as a reserve because the Eagles had locked their spot in the playoffs two weeks earlier with Michael Vick under center.  And the Cowboys sucked.  So what I am faced with now is writing another preview piece(s) rather than a scathing article about the rebuilding process.  I guess that isn't so bad though.

The Eagles and Packers will meet in Philadelphia on Sunday night and it may just get a little wild.  Despite the Packers' lower per game scoring average (24.3 to the Eagles' 27.4), they have the potential to put up huge numbers offensively.  They also have one of the more feared defenses in the league, led by second-year caveman from USC, Clay Matthews.  Aaron Rodgers is powerful and accurate, and has a very good and fast receiver in Greg Jennings who usually accompanies Desean Jackson atop the longest-catches-of-the-year list.  Green Bay won the first match-up between the teams in Week 1, although Kolb was injured in the game and Vick came in as a back-up.  Had Vick been in the entire time, perhaps the result would have been different.  It's sure to be a spectacular display of offense, and the by far the best game of the weekend.

I'll focus on a few aspects of this match-up and see where we end up.

-----Defense-----

I mentioned Clay Matthews as a leader, but really this GB defense is a strong team defense with veterans like Nick Collins and Charles Woodson in the secondary and AJ Hawk at linebacker.  They swarm to the ball and know how to tackle correctly.  They are strong on the QB's right side for most quarterbacks, but Vick is left handed so he's going to be turned around.  Usually this would be a bad thing for a quarterback, big mean linebackers coming from outside of your vision, just ask Steve Young.  But Vick feels the rush better than most and can much more easily make a play scrambling to his left.  Green Bay is smart and fundamental, but might be just a little too slow to keep up with Vick and Desean Jackson. 
I would mention how it is a little easier to run on a 3-4 defense, and that Lesean McCoy could have a big game rushing, but we know that the run game is a moot point.  Don't we, Andy...

The Eagles on the other hand have play makers in Trent Cole and Asante Samuel.  Aside from those two, there are not many strengths.  They stop the run sometimes, but give up big passing plays in the middle of the field.  In the red zone, they don't stop either.  Rookie 7th round picks Coleman and Chaney have filled in rather nicely at safety and MLB respectively, but a veteran QB in the playoffs should be able to pick them apart.  And since we are on the topic of being picked apart, Dimitri Patterson gets picked apart like The Scarecrow when the flying monkeys get a hold of him.

Three or four play makers just can't match 11 solid defenders.  I give the Packers the nod on defense.

-----Run Game-----(Separated from Offense because, well, come on.)

This section will be fairly short.  Neither team has a great rushing offense, evidenced by both head coaches' propensity to call pass plays about 65% of the time.  Where they differ though is the reason for their ratios.  McCarthy throws because he has a good QB and a bad RB.  Ryan Grant has been injured since the first meeting between these teams, and I suspect will be out for this meeting as well.  Brandon Jackson, the back-up to Grant and leading carrier this year, is just not that good.

Reid, on the other hand, is addicted to passing despite have a pro-bowl RB in McCoy.  McCoy isn't the biggest guy, but he can make cuts with the best of them.  Generally he's used more for screens and draws, with Vick carrying it 7-10 times a game, but I believe he has a genuine opportunity to have a big game on Sunday.  With only three defensive linemen, McCoy will have an extra yard or two to make a cut and shake a tackle.  He can get to 100 yards on 18 carries, but I doubt Andy will give it to him 18 times.

Vick is the wild card.  His rushes generally aren't designed, but it makes it that much worse for McCarthy's game plan.  I'll get to Vick in a moment though.  For now, Eagles have the edge in the run game.

-----Offense-----
This is gonna be one hell of a QB match up.  On one hand, you have Aaron Rodgers who is poised and polished.  An above average pocket passer, Rodgers has been very successful in Green Bay with the use of slants and big fast receivers.  Even with a weak run game, he still manages to play-action well enough that he and Greg Jennings are one of the best big play tandems in football.  A-Rodg can also handle himself well enough if he is forced to scramble, which is a lot since their offensive line and the Eagles' are similarly bad.

Vick Vick Vick.... I have to contradict a previous opinion on him.  In my last post, I said that Vick needs to be more patient.  If he does that in this game, he's going to get hurt.  The health of the Philly's O-line is in question, and they still aren't very good with the starters playing.  I'm sure Dom Capers (GB DC) has a blitz package in place that will have Matthews and Hawk, probably even Nick Collins, hungry to rip Vick's head off on every play.  But if Vick is truly healthy like he says he is, he should be able to escape the rush.  The field will be open for Jackson, Maclin, and Avant with all the blitzes likely to come.  Vick has the arm to get it down field, or sling it into tight windows.  Since Reid won't call run plays, expect screens to combat the blitz.  Better yet, expect the commentators to discuss how the Eagles are the best screen team in the league.  Happens every game.

If Vick doesn't get broken in half early on a blindside hit, I think the Eagles have a slightly more dynamic and consistent offense.

-----Special Teams-----

I don't know how good Green Bay is, and aside from Desean Jackson returning it for the Eagles it doesn't matter.  The Eagles are atrocious on special teams.  Period.


So to recap:
Eagles - Offense, Run Game
Green Bay - Special Teams, Defense
Home field advantage goes to Eagles.

My Pick:  PHI  34 - 30