In the television industry there is a term for a program that has begun its descent to irrelevance. The term pokes fun at a ludicrous episode of Happy Days that had Fonzie showcasing his watersport acumen as he literally jumped over a shark. Henceforth, "jumping the shark" became an ominous phrase for any show that seems like it has run out of steam.
Roy Oswalt has jumped the shark.
Last week we may have seen Roy O's career begin to fade out with a whimper that too often happens to good players. After suffering a lower back injury in his last start, Oswalt left the game and left the unmistakable feeling behind that we may have seen the last of his dominance. Oh he may come back from his injury, hey may pitch again, and he may pitch well. He showed us all though that baseball may not be on the top of his priority list after the tornadoes in his hometown. Anyone who faults Roy for leaving the team to help his family is flat out wrong, but hurting himself while being there for eight days... one could make a case.
Heading in to the season, it was clear that the Phillies had the best starting rotation that baseball has seen in years, but it was also clear that Oswalt was the wild card. After a career of throwing much harder than a man of his size should, and carrying a heavier load than any one pitcher should (which may have helped along the back injury), he will be hard pressed to come back strong from this. He is aging, and he doesn't have a style conducive to an aging pitcher being successful. From all accounts, most importantly his own, this is a serious back injury. If he does come back without any setbacks, his velocity will be down to match his pitch count.
Four Aces is the popular term for this group of pitchers. Halladay, Lee, and Hamels could all be opening day starters, and could pose a serious managerial problem in the playoffs for Ol' Cholly when he has to pick a Game 1 (or game 7) shut down game. Oswalt will not factor in to that mix. Ruben Amaro Jr. saved him from the hell hole that is Houston baseball, and put him into a low pressure situation where three other pitchers could carry him. His early flashes of brilliance have turned out to just be a flash in the pan; adrenaline from pitching in his first meaningful game in who knows how long.
Oswalt's career has been a sad story of a quiet worker, doing his job exceptionally well. He's been labeled a flamethrower, has two 20 win seasons in his back pocket, and has 154 wins halfway though his 11th season. That's good for 10th in career (active) wins. Reaching back and trying to blow batters away is taking life out of him at a rate the Surgeon General would warn about, though, and that 33 begins to look more like 43. With nagging back injuries, not just from this year, 200 victories is a pipe dream. 180 wins is a stretch.
Either Oswalt learns to use that nasty curveball of his more often and nibble with off-speed stuff, or he can head back down to Mississippi because it will be a while before he's got effective speed on his ball again. Roy is a great pitcher, but we have seen the last of the magic that makes him great. He'll pitch again, but it's now a matter of months rather than years left before he realizes that he just doesn't have it anymore.
What happened to Fonzie after he jumped the shark? Look no further for the answer than the infinite wisdom of The Wedding Singer...
Sammy: See... I grew up idolizing guys like Fonzie and Vinnie Barbarino because they got a lot of chicks. You know what happened to Fonzie and Vinnie Barbarino?
Robbie: Yeah, I read that Fonzie wants to be a director and Barbarino, I think... the mechanical bull movie? I didn't see it yet.
Sammy: Their shows got canceled. Because no one wants to see a fifty-year-old guy hitting on chicks.
